Dollar recovery on pause whilst oil bounce helps equities

Market Overview

The recent recovery on the US dollar seems to be on pause for now as traders begin to look towards tomorrow’s Non-farm Payrolls report. The key levels that were broken during the dollar sell-off are being tested again in the dollar recovery, but traders will be questioning whether this is the extent of the rebound already. Wall Street closed mildly lower again yesterday as it followed European markets lower, whilst Asian markets have been also mildly weaker overnight after the Caixin China services PMI missed expectations. European markets have though found some support in the early moves today, helped by the bounce in oil. After being hit yesterday afternoon by slightly higher than expected EIA oil inventories, the oil price has rallied once more on the news that the Canadian wildfires are disrupting output from Canadian oil sands production.

In forex markets the recent bout of dollar strength is on pause and traders will be asking themselves whether this is the end of the recovery. The caution over the move could be understandable with Non-farm Payrolls looming tomorrow and perhaps markets are already entering into consolidation mode ahead of the key data release. The euro and yen are broadly flat currently however there are gains in sterling ahead of the services PMI data and also the Canadian dollar is also strengthening as the oil price has jumped. The Aussie dollar is also showing some strength after a significant improvement in the Australian trade balance on strong exports (up 4%). Gold and silver has found support after some recent weakness whilst the oil price is around 2% higher.

Traders will be looking towards UK services PMI at 0930BST which is expected to dip slightly back to 53.5 (from 53.7) and the US weekly jobless claims at 1330BST which are expected to hold broadly steady at 260,000 (last week 257,000).

Chart of the Day – USD/CAD

With the rally seen in the past couple of days, the downtrend channel that has been dragging USD/CAD lower over the past three months has been broken. Yet another example of the US dollar rallying and the question is whether the dollar is indeed on the brink of a serious recovery. Rallies have continued to be sold into over the past few months so confirmation of the move needs to be seen. The bullish engulfing candlestick (bullish key one day reversal) from the low at 1.2458 is the first sign of a recovery. The downtrend may have been broken but this could be the end of the Canadian dollar strength rather than a full blown dollar rally. The resistance at 1.2835 looks to be breaking, with a high of 1.2885 yesterday but today’s early weakness is questioning this break. However, the first key reaction high at 1.2990 needs to be overcome to signal real intent. The RSI has consistently failed in the mid-40s recently and the sharp move higher is a strong sign for the bulls if the RSI can hold a move above 50. The hourly chart already shows the breakout above the pivot line around 1.2750 and positively configured hourly momentum. The early weakness in today needs to maintain support above 1.2750 to retain the improving outlook. Above $1.2990 opens 1.3217 and 1.3296.

USDCAD 05052016


The euro bulls are fighting to hang on to the breakout above $1.1465. Despite the near term corrective signal that was seen on Tuesday (the shooting star) being confirmed by a further decline yesterday, the old resistance that is new support at $1.1465 was held by yesterday’s low (to the pip) and so far today remains intact. However the pressure for a correction remains and a close back below $1.1465 could open for a deeper move lower, with $1.1395 and $1.1330 the subsequent supports. The Sell signal on the Stochastics, the RSI turning lower at 70 and the MACD lines not confirming the breakout all point towards a likely correction now. The intraday hourly chart shows a tight consolidation of less than 60 pips yesterday between $1.1465/$1.1528 despite a whole range of Eurozone and US economic data. This could mean that the market is already looking towards Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls data with caution. The hourly technical indicators are also rather benign. Key resistance remains the recent high at $1.1614.

EURUSD 05052016


The recent corrective signals on Cable were confirmed yesterday as the big bearish engulfing candle was followed up by another negative candle of around 40 pips lost on the day. Despite the minor rebound in the early moves today, the crossover sell signal from the Stochastics has now been confirmed and means a bearish bias to the near term outlook. However the medium term improvement in sterling has been considerable in the past few weeks and this correction looks to be a near term move. There is a support band now between $1.4400/$1.4460 which is in place and may be an area to see the next higher low. The hourly chart shows a slight pick up overnight as some of the near term stretched momentum unwinds. The initial resistance is yesterday’s high at $1.4570. Keep in mind that UK services PMI is today at 0930BST and has a traditional impact on Cable but also that traders will be looking forward to Non-farm Payrolls with caution.

GBPUSD 05052016


The recovery in the dollar had managed to claw back almost 200 pips yesterday prior to a slight stutter at 107.45, so the question is whether this is the end of the rally? The overhead supply contained between 107.60/107.80 is key near term as this is a barrier that needs to be breached to open potential further recovery (similar to the $1.1465 support on EUR/USD). Technical indicators hint at a potential recovery but the crossover buy signal on the Stochastics is yet to be confirmed and there is little real signal on the MACD lines or the RSI. The intraday hourly chart currently just reflects a bear market rally that has failed at resistance with the hourly RSI hitting 70 and rolling over and the MACD lines also losing impetus and increasingly benign in their recovery. The move could just be biding its time for payrolls tomorrow but there is much more that needs to be done to convince that there is conviction behind a rally. Initial support at 106.23 protects a retreat back to the low at 105.52.

USDJPY 05052016


As with all of these charts that are related to the US dollar, once more the chart on gold reflects a near term correction that may already be running out of steam. The breakout above $1282.50 was followed by a shooting star candle and then two subsequent corrective candles. However yesterday’s candle shows that the sellers lost impetus towards the end of the day and the closing price around the mid-point on the day poses questions of the longevity of the correction. I spoke previously about the support between $1260 and $1270 as potentially where the bulls would start to look for a new low if they were ready to treat this as a mere bull market correction and this could now be the case with support maintained today. The RSI is still above 60 which is positive and although the Stochastics have crossed lower, the signal lacks intent for me. Again this could be a consolidation in front of Non-farm Payrolls (which tends to be a high volatility event for gold) so a degree of caution is needed. A move above $1289.30 (yesterday’s high) would help to re-engage the bulls for a retest of the recent high at $1303.60.

Gold 05052016


The oil price has held on to the support around $43.50 as a bullish candle has helped to bolster the key near term support band between $42.40/$42.60. Daily momentum indicators retain a bullish configuration and with this in mind, corrections continue to be used as a chance to buy with the bulls still in control whilst the uptrend (that is currently at $40.70) remains intact. The hourly chart shows that a move back above yesterday’s high at $44.88 would form a near term upside break again. This move would have confirmation above $45.35 as it would then break a sequence of lower highs and lower lows over the past few days, and this would help to re-engage the bulls once more for a retest of the high at $46.78. Near term support is in place now at $43.20 from yesterday’s low.

WTI 05052016

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