Will this risk rally be derailed in March?

A week is a long time in politics and perhaps the same could be said for the financial markets. The strong recovery in risk appetite which has been driven by the continued improvement in the oil price now looks to be turning out to be something more than just the traditional bear market rally. This could now be something of substance. However could this risk rally be derailed by what promises to be a tumultuous month for markets in March? The coming month is jam packed with potentially pivotal central bank meetings which could once again chance the course of the recovery. The strengthening of the US dollar has come as the economic data in the US has picked up again but moving into a week stacked with tier one data, traders can expect elevated volatility. Could the improved US data drive a new dollar bull run? As per usual on the first week of the month, the focus is on Non-farm Payrolls, but with a  huge FOMC meeting looming this takes on added importance.


What are the key factors to look out for in the forex markets at the moment and what role is the oil price playing for market sentiment? We take a look at the key technical analysis outlook for Euro/Dollar and Dollar/Yen, two markets that are key signals for sentiment on the markets. We also consider what the outlook is on the equity markets. What is driving the key moves and is this improvement set to continue? There is also a technical analysis of the S&P 500 which appears to be leading the charge, whilst also looking at the outlook on the FTSE 100. We finish with a look at the key movements on the commodity markets, asking questions such as, can gold hold this rally? Furthermore, what are the key movements on the bond markets telling us? The report ends with a technical analysis of gold and Brent Crude oil.



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