06/05/2014: Weekly Trading Notes
- US earnings season a bit tepid – Failing to drive S&P forward. Still questions over whether there will be a “Sell in May and go away?” Markets have been driven by M&A more so.
- Dollar under serious pressure – Dollar Index at an 8 month low. Key breakouts near term on EUR/USD, GBP/USD. Dollar/Yen breaking lower opens for a test of the bottom of the 3 month support band
- Yellen and Draghi take centre stage
- Political tensions in Ukraine are not going away, prospect of further sanctions against Russia
- Test of key high at $1.3967 is now on.
- Yellen talks first, Slow and steady taper?
- What will Draghi do to talk down the Euro this month? Further talk about QE is likely.
- Second reading of Eurozone inflation next week plus GDP!!
- Highest since August 2009.
- Driven by strong UK data.
- Upgrade of OECD to UK GDP, downgrade to US
- Overbought near term could lead to consolidation or a correction back towards $1.6900.
- Key low at 101.84 broken
- Bottom of the 3 month range now being tested
- 144 day moving average (a very decent gauge of support at 102.09) has been broken.
- Next key low at 101.31 then the Feb low at 100.74
- Key near term levels now being eyed on indices
- FTSE 100 targeting the highs again at 6867, but will the urge to take profits result in a loss of momentum?
- DAX ranging between 9367/9645
- S&P at less than 1% off its all-time high again – but earnings season has failed to really give it much rocket fuel so far.
- Has spiked on the Ukraine news.
- Back above $1300 which is a near term gauge for bullish/bearish position
- Can it now stay there?
WATCH OUT FOR
Wednesday 7th May
- Japan – BoJ meeting minutes
- US – Janet Yellen testifies to the Joint Economic Committee
Thursday 8th May
- Australia – unemployment
- China – trade balance
- UK – BoE rates
- ECB – rates and Draghi press conference
- US – Weekly Jobless Claims
- Friday 9th May
- China – CPI
Tuesday 13th May
- China – Retail Sales and Industrial Production
- Germany – ZEW survey
Wednesday 14th May
- UK – Unemployment and Quarterly Inflation report
Thursday 15th May
- Japan – GDP
- Germany – GDP
- Eurozone – CPI for April and GDP
- US – CPI