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07/02/2014: Non-farm Payrolls and ADP

I am looking at how similar the ADP number is to the Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) and therefore whether the 175,000 ADP number on Wednesday is an indication of what we can expect later on NFP.


You would say that from the chart above that the purple ADP line is much smoother than the gold NFP.

While there is a broad trend similarity, NFP does appear to be more volatile than ADP and therefore difficult to get much of a reasoned appraisal from the two rates.

That said, the two lines tend not to diverge for too long and for this reason I am going to go out on a limb and say that the number for NFP today will be between 150,000 and 170,000.

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