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19/02/2014: Trading outlook for today

EUR/USD has just begun to drift slowly backwards and this could take it back towards the band of support around $1.3723. I am increasingly positive about Euro/Dollar having made the break above $1.3739 and hourly momentum indicators in bullish configuration. I am wary of a corrective drift lower in the coming hours, but I am now looking for an opportunity to buy in the support band $1.3680/$1.3723.

GBP/USD is a tough call today as the meeting minutes add in a choppy element to the chart. The slight increase in UK unemployment to 7.2% (from 7.1%) and the dovish unanimous call of the Bank of England MPC on forward guidance suggests downside pressure could be seen. A sell signal could be a breach of support at $1.6653 and a move back towards $1.6603. I am thinking about a possible short position with the $1.6740 intraday resistance strengthened by this morning’s price action.

USD/JPY is a tough call as the pivot level around 102 yen is so important. The lower highs on the hourly chart suggest this support be tested but it is a difficult call with the near term outlook.

EUR/GBP has been helped higher this morning by the dovish BoE meeting minutes and higher UK unemployment but needs a move above £0.8253 to open the next resistance at £0.8280. I am going to continue to run my long position with good support now having built around the £0.8220 mark.

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