KEY MARKET DRIVERS
- M&A deals and positive catch up from public holidays driving equity markets higher. Earnings season – Big questions still being asked of market valuation. Will there be a “Sell in May and go away” this year?
- Dollar rally running out of steam? Traders comes back after Easter with renewed selling of the dollar. Dollar index failing around 80 key resistance. Dollar/Yen recovery hitting the buffers today. Poor dollar performance versus all majors today.
- Huge week next week, US GDP, FOMC, Payrolls
- Political tensions in Ukraine are not going away, prospect of further sanctions against Russia
- Near term key resistances $1.3827/$1.3865
- Breaching ends the recent Dollar recovery.
- Flash Eurozone inflation next week!!
- Driven by strong UK data.
- But, the breach of $1.6822 is yet to be confirmed.
- $1.6841 is resistance – tested today but held.
- Recovery off key March low at 101.17
- 6 straight higher lows, support at 102.34 is key near term.
- Also watch the 89 hour moving average which is also now acting as the basis of support (currently 102.42).
- Don’t forget 102.83 on the upside which has been a consistent pivot level in the past few months
Key near term levels now being eyed on indices:
- FTSE 100 testing 6706
- DAX at 9581
- S&P at 1872
- Retreating back below $1300 is not a good sign again and this is now a near term ceiling once more.
- Needs to hold above the key low around $1277
WATCH FOR THIS WEEK:
Wed 23rd April
- Australia – CPI
- China – Flash HSBC PMI
- UK – BoE meeting minutes
- US – New Home Sales
- New Zealand – RBNZ rates
Thursday 24th April
- Germany – Ifo business Climate
- US – Durable Goods
Friday 25th April
- Japan – CPI
- UK – Retail Sales
Monday 28th April
- US – Pending Home Sales
Tuesday 29th April
- UK – GDP Preliminary (1st reading)
- US – Consumer Confidence
Wednesday 30th April
- Japan – BoJ rates
- Eurozone – CPI flash estimate for April
- US – GDP Advance (1st reading)
- US – FOMC rates
Thursday 1st May
- Manufacturing PMIs – all
Friday 2nd May
- US – Non-farm Payrolls
- US – Unemployment