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22/04/2014: Weekly trading notes


KEY MARKET DRIVERS

  • M&A deals and positive catch up from public holidays driving equity markets higher. Earnings season – Big questions still being asked of market valuation. Will there be a “Sell in May and go away” this year?
  • Dollar rally running out of steam? Traders comes back after Easter with renewed selling of the dollar. Dollar index failing around 80 key resistance. Dollar/Yen recovery hitting the buffers today. Poor dollar performance versus all majors today.
  • Huge week next week, US GDP, FOMC, Payrolls
  • Political tensions in Ukraine are not going away, prospect of further sanctions against Russia

 

EUR/USD

  • Near term key resistances $1.3827/$1.3865
  • Breaching ends the recent Dollar recovery.
  • Flash Eurozone inflation next week!!

GBP/USD

  • Driven by strong UK data.
  • But, the breach of $1.6822 is yet to be confirmed.
  • $1.6841 is resistance – tested today but held.

USD/JPY

  • Recovery off key March low at 101.17
  • 6 straight higher lows, support at 102.34 is key near term.
  • Also watch the 89 hour moving average which is also now acting as the basis of support (currently 102.42).
  • Don’t forget 102.83 on the upside which has been a consistent pivot level in the past few months

Indices

Key near term levels now being eyed on indices:

  • FTSE 100 testing 6706
  • DAX at 9581
  • S&P at 1872

Gold

  • Retreating back below $1300 is not a good sign again and this is now a near term ceiling once more.
  • Needs to hold above the key low around $1277

 

WATCH FOR THIS WEEK:

Wed 23rd April

  • Australia – CPI
  • China – Flash HSBC PMI
  • UK – BoE meeting minutes
  • US – New Home Sales
  • New Zealand – RBNZ rates

Thursday 24th April

  • Germany – Ifo business Climate
  • US – Durable Goods

Friday 25th April

  • Japan – CPI
  • UK – Retail Sales

 

NEXT WEEK

Monday 28th April

  • US – Pending Home Sales

Tuesday 29th April

  • UK – GDP Preliminary (1st reading)
  • US – Consumer Confidence

Wednesday 30th April

  • Japan – BoJ rates
  • Eurozone – CPI flash estimate for April
  • US – GDP Advance (1st reading)
  • US – FOMC rates

Thursday 1st May

  • Manufacturing PMIs – all

Friday 2nd May

  • US – Non-farm Payrolls
  • US – Unemployment

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Research Risk Warning

At Hantec Markets Ltd we provide an execution only service. Any opinions expressed by analyst Richard Perry should not be construed as investment advice or an investment recommendation. This report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Forex and CFDs are leveraged products which can result in losses greater than your initial deposit. Therefore you should only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary prior to entering into such transactions.