UK Chancellor of the Exchequor Phillip Hammond (ie. the UK finance minister) has announced his Autumn Statement in which he lays out growth and borrowing expectations, a few spending plans and taxation changes. Below is a brief breakdown and a few comments.
Weaker growth and weaker tax revenues means more borrowing.
Still in the red at the end of this Parliament,which is a change from George Osborne’s balanced budget target.
Borrowing is back, and more fiscal spending is replacing a far more austere approach of the Cameron/Osborne regime.
This is still quite optimistic for the OBR.
Dropped for the next two years but importantly kept the same from 2019 onwards.
New target for debt to be falling as a share of GDP by the end of the Parliament.
However economists argue that as long as growth is positive, having debt falling as a proportion of debt/GDP is a sustainable position to be in.
A new “market leading investment product” from the NS&I A
One Budget per year is positive
Gives better certainty, less tinkering, and less politicising.
Also the timing of the Autumn Budget means more time to plan for the new tax year in April – better for businesses.
IMPACT ON POUND
The initial market impact has been somewhat neutral (which is possibly quite positive given the renewed dollar strength today). However the general reaction could be considered to be mildly negative due to the increase in debt and borrowing, although this was largely expected.
At Hantec Markets Ltd we provide an execution only service. Any opinions expressed by analyst Richard Perry should not be construed as investment advice or an investment recommendation. This report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Forex and CFDs are leveraged products which can result in losses greater than your initial deposit. Therefore you should only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary prior to entering into such transactions.