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Escalation of the trade dispute remains key this week


With Donald Trump continuing to escalate his protectionist rhetoric in the trade dispute with China, the geopolitical risks remain paramount for traders this week. How does this impact on the US dollar and emerging markets? We look at the impact on forex majors, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.

Trade Wars

A surprise jump in US wage growth should drive a dollar positive reaction this week. Higher Treasury yields are dollar supportive, however, this becomes an interesting test. If the dollar cannot break support of an old floor just above $1.1500 on EUR/USD, or resistance around 111/112 on USD/JPY, then there will be a feeling that the dollar bull run really is coming to an end. For months, traders have waited for sustainable traction in wage growth to be the final piece in the jigsaw for the Fed’s tightening. However, time and again they have been disappointed. Inflation expectations have been subsequently anchored for much of 2018, helping to flatten the US yield curve. Will the longer end of the curve now begin to react higher? Two year Treasury yields pulled to 10 year highs on Friday above 2.70% as this wage growth improves the prospects of a fourth rate hike in December. However, will the 10 year Treasury yield similarly rise, back above 3% and help steepen the curve? Donald Trump’s penchant for picking trade disputes around the world has strengthened the dollar in recent months, as it makes the US the biggest bully in the playground, pulling capital out of emerging markets. However, longer dated yields have been stubborn with  apprehension over future growth. Another failure for the longer end to take off this week would be further sign that bond markets concerns are that Trump’s trade policy will hurting US growth prospects outweigh the potential positive impacts of wage growth. This would bring the dollar bull run one step closer to its conclusion.

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At Hantec Markets Ltd we provide an execution only service. Any opinions expressed by analyst Richard Perry should not be construed as investment advice or an investment recommendation. This report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Forex and CFDs are leveraged products which can result in losses greater than your initial deposit. Therefore you should only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary prior to entering into such transactions.