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Exasperated traders increasingly unsure how to take Fed guidance

Last updated: May 3rd, 2017 at 09:58 pm

How are business or investors supposed to plan their investments in the US when the Federal Reserve is giving out such mixed messages? The credibility of the world most important central bank is coming under ever more scrutiny by the market in the wake of events of the past couple of weeks. A significant dovish shift in monetary policy in the official FOMC statement, dot plots and press conference by Janet Yellen has been strangely undermined in the days since as a series of hawkish messages have emanated from Fed members. There has been a reaction from the dollar but also across asset classes as exasperated traders wonder exactly how they can now take the Fed guidance. What does this all do for previously relied upon messages of forward guidance, the dot pots and how the market can actually trust what we get from the Fed? The impact continues to be felt on markets this week which culminates in a crucial day of economic data on Friday. What does this mean for the crucial Non-farm Payrolls data this week, but what else is on the economic calendar to drive markets?

The big question is whether the recent strength of the US dollar can last? This is a discussion considered in our foreign exchange outlook, but also what is the outlook across the forex majors? There is also a technical analysis of crucial major pairs such as Euro/Dollar and Dollar/Yen.

What is the outlook for equity markets in the wake of some significant moves from the major central banks in recent weeks? Are we set up for another correction, or are the bulls still hanging on for further gains? There is also a technical analysis of the German DAX Xetra and the FTSE 100.

There is also a look at the impact on key commodity markets and also the recent developments on bond markets. We finish with a technical analysis of gold and Brent Crude oil.

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At Hantec Markets Ltd we provide an execution only service. Any opinions expressed by analyst Richard Perry should not be construed as investment advice or an investment recommendation. This report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Forex and CFDs are leveraged products which can result in losses greater than your initial deposit. Therefore you should only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary prior to entering into such transactions.