Last updated: May 3rd, 2017 at 09:58 pm
The remarkable rally in the oil price has translated through financial markets and there is now an improvement in trading sentiment that is resulting in a sharp reversal of some of the huge flight into safe haven assets. However, there is little positivity on the economic data from to point towards why Asian markets are so strongly higher, with no only Q4 GDP in Japan showing a -1.4% annualised decline, in addition to further weakness across the China trade data that saw dollar imports 18.8% lower and exports 11.2% lower, both of which were weaker than expectations. However we find the trades that had been soaring in recent days now enacting a reversal, with the yen, gold and US treasuries all under selling pressure today. The yen weakness is also helping to drive the Nikkei 225 up over 7% on the day. With the positive US close on Friday buoyed by the jump in oil, the S&P 500 was up 2% and European trading is benefitting across the board today with strength in early moves.
In forex markets, despite the disappointing China trade data we have the improvement in rise appetite showing across the pairs. Against the dollar, the euro and the yean are weaker, whilst the commodity currencies have moves off the oil rebound and are stronger. Sterling continues to consolidate. The reversal in sentiment is driving a correction on gold with over $20 of downside initially, whilst oil has consolidated the huge rebound from Friday.
Having had the China trade data overnight there is now nothing of any note on the calendar today with the possible exception of New Zealand retail sales at 2145GMT (+1.4% QoQ exp). The US is closed for Presidents’ Day.
The recovery on the silver chart matching that of the gold rally (16% and 17% respectively to their highs on Thursday), however as market sentiment has picked up (on the back of a huge oil price rally) we are now in the position of looking for signs of a correction again. The rally in silver may not have gone as far overbought as the move on gold, but there is the prospect of some near term profit-taking, and this seems to have started overnight. It is interesting that the key Fibonacci retracements of the run higher from $13.71 (the January low) to $15.95 (Thursday’s spike high) coincide with some key support levels. Initially a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $15.42 is very close to the support at $15.45 which has now been broken. A key feature of the hourly chart is the frequency of old resistance becoming new support, so this $15.45 level is rather an important near term break which has opened $15.05 as another breakout support. The intraday hourly chart now shows a band of overhead resistance $15.45/$15.60 and it will be interesting to see how rallies are now treated. A failure of the support at $15.05 opens $14.63. It would need a a move above $15.95 to continue the recovery with the October 2015 highs of $16.19/$16.36 still a possibility if sentiment takes another turn for the worse.
The rally on the euro has just started to reverse an now the question has to be whether this is the beginning of a corrective leg lower or just a minor pause in the move higher. With the RSI having reached the rare heights of 70, the was limited upside potential despite the momentum strength, and perhaps a short unwinding can do the bulls some good. The Stochastics have crossed lower (no confirmation of an uptrend yet) whilst the MACD lines are still fairly positive. The breakout pivot band $1.1050/$1.1100is the prime support zone, however prior to that there is good support around $1.1160. The intraday hourly chart does not show any really significant selling momentum building up yet and whilst there is a near term drift lower it will be interesting to see how the bulls react in the European session today. Initial resistance comes in at $1.1260 and then at $1.1325.
Cable continues to consolidate and despite some fairly hefty volatility across other forex majors in the past week, there has been a far more sedate outlook developing for sterling. The pair continues to build a support base above $1.4350 which is adding to the bull confidence, with momentum far more solidly configured now. The inference is that there is a base from which to work with now and there is a bullish bias increasingly across the daily candlesticks. I spoke last week about the pivot line on the intraday hourly chart, slightly higher than the main support, at $1.4450 and this once more came in to act as support on Friday afternoon. The hourly momentum indicators are driving a more positive configuration now and a move towards the resistance at $1.4575 looks to be developing, above which would re-open the rebound high at $1.4660. Intraday dips that bounce above $1.4450 are a chance to buy. I am more neutral within $1.4350/$1.4450 whilst turning negative again below $1.4350.
The recovery is on, but how long will it last? Bouncing from 110.98 as have had a strong green candle on Friday and this has continued into the new week. Momentum indicators are beginning to unwind with the RSI crossing back above 30 today, whilst the Stochastics have also crossed (and are close to a buy signal confirmation). The move has already unwound through 113.50 which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 121.68/110.98 sell-off and now the 38.2% Fib retracement at 115.07 should be the next rally point. The intraday hourly chart gives us an interesting perspective though as whilst the rebound has developed higher, there has been no specific technical levels taken out yet, with the old support at 114.20 set to be the first real test for the bulls. The momentum has improved but cannot be said to be bullishly configured yet. Watch the support at 113.15 which is a near term breakout level and has acted as a pivot overnight. However the first real support does not come in until 111.72.
The $65 intraday move on gold seems to have been something of a high point for the precious metal as the profit takers have started to take the cream off the top. The negative candle on Friday was the first for over two weeks and the move is continuing today. The support of the first Fibonacci retracement of the bull run from $1071/$1261 is now being tested at $1216. Interestingly there have been no confirmed sell signals on the momentum indicators yet, although the Stochastics have crossed lower and the RSI is close to crossing below 70. On the intraday hourly chart, the support at $1230 has been broken today and this arguably completes a small top pattern that implies a correction target of around $1200 which is also an old breakout level from the uptrend.. This old support at $1230 could also now be seen as a basis of resistance too. The hourly momentum indicators are increasingly corrective but there is minor support around $1213 and an 8 day uptrend to also hold up the correction. It will be interesting to see if the bulls can hang on to the gains, but increasingly a correction to unwind some of the excess looks likely.
What an incredible rebound! The move higher on Friday just shows how tight liquidity in the oil market must be and/or how high volatility is. Either way a 10% rebound is huge and the bulls will be hoping that this is something more than merely a bear market correction back towards the neckline of the top pattern at $29.25. This is a level that was reached on Wednesday prior to a resumed sell-off and although has been breached overnight today, there is a resistance band $29.25/$30 now in place. The near term outlook needs to continue for the bulls to have any hope of a real recovery. The Stochastics crossing is a hopeful sign, however the medium to longer term configuration of the momentum indicators suggests that the bulls should not get their hops too high. There needs to be a decisive breach of the big 3 month downtrend which today comes in at $31.65. The hourly chart shows a broken 6 day downtrend. Depending upon the treatment of the big neckline, run with the recovery for now. Next resistance is at $30.60.
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