Last updated: May 3rd, 2017 at 09:55 pm
The move higher on the dollar has continued today as the markets continue to price for higher US growth and inflation of a Trump presidency. The strong dollar has been exacerbated by the early jump in Treasury yields (the bond market was shut Friday for Veteran’s Day), with the 10 year yield now over 2.2% and the highest since January. Also the highest since January is the Trade Weighted US dollar which is again close to 100. These moves are impacting across major forex pairs with EUR/USD back to Q1 levels and Dollar/Yen moving above a the key technical resistance at 107.47. The stronger dollar is also pulling gold back below the key October support and the bears will now be eyeing the $1200 level once more. Economic data out of Asia has been mixed this morning, with Japanese GDP better than expected at an annualised +2.2%, but China Industrial Production (+6.1%) and Retail Sales (+10.0%) both missed expectations.
Wall Street closed on Friday at record levels once again on the Dow Jones, although it was interesting to see the broader S&P 500 a little more cautious (-0.1% at 2164). Asian markets were mixed today but the Japanese Nikkei 225 was strongly higher (+1.7%) on the GDP data and weaker yen. The European indices are looking positive today in early moves. In forex, the dollar is positive against all the majors, with the more risk positive Aussie and Kiwi performing better than others such as the euro and yen. Gold and silver are again marginally lower with oil just holding up.
There is not a great deal on the economic calendar to bother traders today, however they will be looking out for a speech by ECB President Draghi at 1500GMT, with any talk about monetary policy likely to impact on the euro.
Chart of the Day – Silver
The huge bear candle on Friday has changed the outlook as the recent rally has just been used as a chance to sell. The sequence of higher lows in the recovery has been broken and the bears are putting pressure on support at $17.28 and the key October low at $17.08. It is interesting to see that gold has already broken below its equivalent October low (at $1241) and this could now be a lead indicator for silver. The deterioration in the momentum indicators with the RSI failing at 60 and back below 50 suggests a shift in outlook towards the bears, whilst the Stochastics are also accelerating lower. A close below $17.00 would confirm the bear control for further declines and open $16.18 and the key June low at $15.77. There is resistance with the old key level at $17.80 with the hourly chart showing a band of overhead supply between $18.10/$18.40 which will now be seen as a “sell-zone”.
The dollar strength in the past few days since Trumps victory shows little sign of slowing down quite yet and this has dragged the pair lower through the key support at $1.0850. Monday’s move is almost accelerating lower now and the support from the first quarter of 2016 around $1.0800 is now creaking. The 2016 low is $1.0709 and this is now well within range of this negative momentum set up. The bears will though be conscious of the RSI which is once again moving towards 30, which classically on EUR/USD has limited the selling pressure. For now though the market remains firmly with the dollar bulls and intraday rebounds are being sold into. The hourly chart shows overhead resistance at $1.0850/$1.0870 with $1.0950 still a key level of overhead supply. I am still bearish near term but mindful of the importance of the support being tested and the increasingly stretched momentum.
It is incredible to say that amidst the significant dollar strength impacting across forex majors, that Cable has yet to experience any significant correction. The ability for sterling to hold up in such conditions is remarkable. Friday’s candle was another bull move although it did disappoint slightly into the close and has drifted off early morning on Monday. This still has the look of a bull correction and it is dropping back into support. On the daily chart the momentum remains positive in the improvement with the RSI over 50, the MACD lines still rising and the Stochastics positively configured. The hourly chart shows that the market has pulled back just below the breakout support at $1.2557, however there is a band of support above $1.2500 which can still help to bolster the bull run. The hourly chart shows that this corrective move has unwound the momentum back to levels on the hourly RSI and MACD lines that the bulls now need to hold on to. The bulls would not want to drop below $1.2450, with support at $1.2350 now key. Resistance is at Friday’s high of $1.2673 above which re-opens $1.2800.
This incredible run for the dollar just does not look to be stopping. The move has been so impressive on Dollar/Yen that the key resistance at 107.47 which was the July high has now been broken. If the market can close above here tonight it would be a very important move. It would be a completed base pattern with longer term implications as a six month base pattern implying around 750 pips of further recovery in the longer term. The strength of the momentum is huge, with the RSI at its highest level since June 2015. This denotes the strength of the trend but also that we should begin to be more cautious with chasing the move higher in the near term. An overstretched technical correction could easily be seen so we must be careful. There is good support now at 105.50 on the daily chart, whilst the hourly chart shows that in the past few days 106.00 has been a pivot. The next overhead resistance is 117.90 and then little until 111.45/111.90.
What a turnaround in gold in just a matter of days. Having spiked to $1337 as Trump was moving towards victory the outlook has turned sharply on its head and gold is now trading $120 lower. The market has also broken below the support at $1241 and is now firmly on track towards $1200. The concern for the bulls is that the price is now increasingly showing hallmarks of a bear market, with lower highs and lower lows, whilst the recent resistance around the underside of the 144 day moving average is also a worry. $1200 support will now be key. The momentum looks negatively configured and although the RSI has dropped below 30, the October decline spent two weeks on the RSI below 30 so this is not abnormal. The hourly chart shows negative configuration and intraday rallies are still being sold into. The resistance of today’s high at $1231.20 will be watched but $1241 as the old low will clearly now be a key area of overhead supply for any bounce, and will be the benchmark for a recovery. Rallies are a chance to sell for further weakness to $1200.
The prospect of a near term recovery on oil have been dealt a significant blow in the past couple of sessions with two successive strong bear candles. The key low at $43.07 which was posted amidst the high volatility surrounding Trump’s victory is now under big pressure. The daily momentum indicators are bearishly configured and the minor rebound of early last week seems just to have helped renew downside potential. The key support level is though $42.55 which is the September low and it is interesting to note that the equivalent support has already been broken on Brent Crude. The hourly chart reflects the bearish configuration of momentum which shows the RSI failing around 60 as rallies are being used as a chance to sell. There is now a band of near term resistance $44.30/$44.65 which could be seen as a chance to sell.
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