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Traders will now begin to reposition for a December hike

I believe that the Fed will next increase the Fed Funds target range in the December meeting and dollar traders may begin to reposition for that this week. There has been a lot of chat recently about the prospect of a September rate hike. Let me say this now, that it will not happen. For one, the market is not pricing it, with the CME Group FedWatch tool pricing in the probability of around 20% now (see the chart below) in the wake of the tepid Non-farm Payrolls report on Friday. The Fed likes to really stoke up expectations before it moves. There has been talk that Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech could be construed as preparation for a hike. No, she would have been far more explicit if a hike was imminent. Both Yellen and vice-chair Fischer suggested the Fed was moving towards a rate hike, but did not say that it was there. This ambiguity meant that payrolls needed to be huge on Friday but they were not. Add in the dip in average hourly earnings, disappointing ISM Manufacturing, slowing prospects of Q3 GDP (according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model) and core PCE inflation refusing to budge, whilst also notwithstanding the proximity of the Presidential election. The Fed will not hike in September. The recent dollar rally may therefore begin to run out of steam and this could present some interesting trading opportunities on forex and commodities as retracements kick in. We are now into September which is jam-packed with central bank meetings. The RBA, BoC and ECB are all up this week, so the volatility on forex majors is likely to be high.

FedWatch Sept

We take a look into the outlook for forex markets and the various aspects that could impact on markets this week. There is also a look at key equity indices, commodities and bond markets with technical analysis of the major markets.


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