With just a few weeks to go until polling day for the US Presidential Election on 8th November traders are positioning for the fallout. Will it be another President Clinton, or the maverick, President Trump?
We take a look at some of the policies the candidates are proposing, whilst also considering the impact on financial markets.
CURRENT OPINION POLLS
After the UK unexpectedly voted to leave the EU, questions are once more being aimed at how much markets should take out of opinion polls. It was only in the final week or so of polling before the June referendum in the UK that a realistic prospect of Brexit was even considered.
With under three weeks to go until the US casts its vote, it would appear that the polls are showing a Clinton victory is likely, with most polls having the Democratic candidate several points ahead. In recent weeks, Trump’s improved standing has subsequently been hit by a series of sexual scandals and allegations which appear to be making a difference currently. However, if Brexit has taught us anything, it is that polls can often be tighter than you might think.
However, with the US election, it is always important to caveat that the popular vote does not translate directly to the Electoral College votes. In 2012, Barak Obama polled 51% of the vote (to Mitt Romney’s 47%) whilst winning 62% of the Electoral College. In 2008, Obama won 68% of the Electoral College from 53% of the popular vote. However, compare that to George W Bush’s victory in 2000 with 50.4% of the Electoral College votes, for an election in which he actually lost the popular vote with 47.9% of the vote against Al Gore’s 48.4%. Subsequently, the popular vote certainly does not necessarily translate to the overall result. For these reasons the opinion polls need to be treated with a degree of caution even though, as things stand, Clinton still looks likely to become President.
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